The effect of Vietnam’s key export products to China on the growth of export turnover to China and the growth of export turnover to the US

Nguyen Hoang Le Na & Vu Thi Kim Hanh

Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Abstract

With the quantitative method by SEM model, the objective of the paper is to analyze the effect of Vietnam’s key products to the Chinese market on the growth of export turnover from Vietnam to China and from Vietnam to the US. The striking results are that (1) The magnitude of the coefficients is quite small, and the exogenous variables effect the two endogenous variables in different directions. (2) Export turnover to China’s Growth is effected directly and totally by exporting products of Wood and wood products, Raw materials for textiles, leather, shoes, Chemical products, Steel, and Fabrics. (3) Exporting products of Fruit & vegetable goods and Household electrical goods and components effect Export turnover to the US’s Growth. (4) Export turnover to the US’s Growth is not effected by Export turnover to China’s Growth. (5) In terms of the magnitude of the coefficients and the effect direction, the direct and total effects of the exogenous variables effect on Export turnover to China’s Growth are the same. However, exogenous variables that effect Export turnover to the US’s Growth are the same in direction but have a rather small difference in the magnitude of the coefficients. From that, we propose that the solution is to increase the export of the products with the coefficients having the positive effect and to reduce the export of the products with the coefficients having the opposite effect.

Keywords

export products; Vietnam; export turnover; China; the US.

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